Also, the figure for warships excludes patrol boats and similar small ships.The Oslo I (September 1993), Gaza-Jericho (May 1994), and Oslo II accords (September 1995) established a roadmap for achieving peace between Israel and the Palestinians.Moreover, stemming the proliferation of WMD is growing increasingly difficult.In particular, countries are becoming more skilled at concealing their WMD activities.This will make it more difficult to identify new programs, identify potential WMD production and support sites, assess the maturity of programs underway, and ascertain the scope of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons proliferation in the region.
Throughout the next decade, Israel will probably remain in a state of war with the three "outer-ring" states--Libya, Iraq, and Iran--whether or not it makes progress toward resolving its conflicts with its immediate neighbors.This could become another source of friction with Israel.By contrast, Israel and Jordan have succeeded in creating a relatively warm peace between governments, based on the close personal ties between the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein and a shared interest in containing Palestinian nationalism.These events shook Israelis' confidence in the ability of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to halt terrorist attacks and prompted Tel Aviv to break off negotiations with Syria.(Damascus supports the groups that carried out the bombings.) These events also contributed to the May 1996 election in Israel of a Likud government, which rejects the concept of "land for peace," that underpinned the Madrid process.Even if a comprehensive peace could somehow be reached, however, ongoing competition for influence and lingering resentment on both sides over the terms of a settlement would create friction between Israel and most, if not all, of its Arab neighbors. Sources: INSS estimate based on data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the International Institute of Strategic Studies, and Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies.